Okay. I've been doing my whole Sportz' Bubble Watch for a few years now and I think it is time to start back up. With only a few weeks left in the season before conference tournaments, let's see how the bubble looks.
So, here are my locks ... yes, by conference. The ones in green are spot on, no doubt locks. The ones in blue are pretty much in, too, though they can't afford to go in a tailspin. The ones in orange are smack dab on the bubble but would be in if the selections were being made today. Every team in red are on the wrong side of the bubble right now and would miss the dance.
I figure there are 18 conferences who are one-bid leagues and 13 conferences that could net multiple bids. So who should be going?
ATLANTIC COAST: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Maryland.
Virginia Tech got a major lift to their tournament hopes by beating No. 1 Duke. While they aren't locks, they are on the right track. FSU got their 10th ACC win which put them in the "looking good" category. BC got a blowout win at Virginia. Clemson stays in the bubble hunt with a solid win over Wake Forest.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Boston College at Virginia Tech (Tue)
BIG EAST: Notre Dame, Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, Syracuse, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette.
Not much new year right now. I did move St. John's to a lock after their win at Villanova. West Virginia got a good win at Rutgers to solidify their resume. Marquette's win over Providence puts them, at worst, win a .500 conference record which will probably get them in.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Providence at Marquette (Sun), Cincinnati at Marquette (Wed)
BIG TEN: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan.
Yikes! Michigan State took a dubious step back by getting spanked by 20 by Purdue. They're still in for me, but they're wobbling. I think Minnesota is done. They lost to Michigan at home and have lost 7 of their last 8 games.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Purdue at Michigan State (Sun); Illinois at Purdue (Tue)
BIG XII: Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor.
Yes, Colorado beat Texas, but they're not getting back on the bubble. Baylor got a must win at home over Texas A&M. They're still out, as they need to win out and go a round or two in the Big XII tourny to win a bid. I moved K State to a "looking good" after their huge win over Mizzou. Oklahoma St got a must win over Texas Tech. Nebraska's OT loss to Iowa State pops their bubble ... again.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Baylor at Oklahoma State (Tue)
PAC-10: Arizona, Washington, UCLA, Washington State.
UCLA humiliated Arizona, which makes their NCAA case that much stronger. Washington State got a huge win at Washington to keep their hopes alive. .
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: UCLA at Washington (Thu)
SEC: Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama.
Alabama followed up their squeaker over woeful Auburn with a loss at Ole Miss. This really hurts the Tide's at large hopes. Tennessee keeps making it tough to put them in the tournament as they lost at home to Mississippi State, making them 17-12 and just an 7-7 record in SEC play. Georgia got a good win over South Carolina.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Alabama at Florida (Tue)
MOUNTAIN WEST: San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State.
Colorado State was blown out at Air Force, making their bubble a bit more slippery. UNLV got a win over Wyoming, which pushes them a bit closer to a lock.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Utah at Colorado State (Wed)
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Duquesne, Dayton.
Dayton gets back on the bubble with a big win over Duquesne. Richmond stays on the good side of the bubble with a win at Charlotte. Duquesne's loss at St Louis pops their bubble. Rhode Island is hanging onto the bubble by a thread.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: St Louis at Dayton (Wed)
COLONIAL: George Mason, Old Dominion, VCU, Hofstra
C-USA: So. Miss, UAB, UTEP, Memphis, So. Miss
MVC: Missouri State, Wichita State, Northern Iowa.
WAC: Utah State
WCC: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Utah State is close to a lock. So is Missouri State, who beat fellow bubbler Wichita State in a hard fought game. UTEP just spanked Memphis, putting the Tigers back on their heels. UTEP is right there for a bid. Southern Miss lost at UCF, which could end their hopes. Gonzaga is starting to roll. First they beat St. Mary's and their place and then embarrased San Diego.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Missouri Valley Tournament (Next week)
ONE BID LEAGUES (18): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit and Sun Belt. As for the WAC, someone other than Utah State needs to win for the conference to get multiple bids.
There are still some landmines out there, of course. But as of now, here is how I see the bids going.
So, here are my locks ... yes, by conference. The ones in green are spot on, no doubt locks. The ones in blue are pretty much in, too, though they can't afford to go in a tailspin. The ones in orange are smack dab on the bubble but would be in if the selections were being made today. Every team in red are on the wrong side of the bubble right now and would miss the dance.
I figure there are 18 conferences who are one-bid leagues and 13 conferences that could net multiple bids. So who should be going?
ATLANTIC COAST: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Maryland.
Virginia Tech got a major lift to their tournament hopes by beating No. 1 Duke. While they aren't locks, they are on the right track. FSU got their 10th ACC win which put them in the "looking good" category. BC got a blowout win at Virginia. Clemson stays in the bubble hunt with a solid win over Wake Forest.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Boston College at Virginia Tech (Tue)
BIG EAST: Notre Dame, Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, Syracuse, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette.
Not much new year right now. I did move St. John's to a lock after their win at Villanova. West Virginia got a good win at Rutgers to solidify their resume. Marquette's win over Providence puts them, at worst, win a .500 conference record which will probably get them in.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Providence at Marquette (Sun), Cincinnati at Marquette (Wed)
BIG TEN: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan.
Yikes! Michigan State took a dubious step back by getting spanked by 20 by Purdue. They're still in for me, but they're wobbling. I think Minnesota is done. They lost to Michigan at home and have lost 7 of their last 8 games.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Purdue at Michigan State (Sun); Illinois at Purdue (Tue)
BIG XII: Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor.
Yes, Colorado beat Texas, but they're not getting back on the bubble. Baylor got a must win at home over Texas A&M. They're still out, as they need to win out and go a round or two in the Big XII tourny to win a bid. I moved K State to a "looking good" after their huge win over Mizzou. Oklahoma St got a must win over Texas Tech. Nebraska's OT loss to Iowa State pops their bubble ... again.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Baylor at Oklahoma State (Tue)
PAC-10: Arizona, Washington, UCLA, Washington State.
UCLA humiliated Arizona, which makes their NCAA case that much stronger. Washington State got a huge win at Washington to keep their hopes alive. .
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: UCLA at Washington (Thu)
SEC: Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama.
Alabama followed up their squeaker over woeful Auburn with a loss at Ole Miss. This really hurts the Tide's at large hopes. Tennessee keeps making it tough to put them in the tournament as they lost at home to Mississippi State, making them 17-12 and just an 7-7 record in SEC play. Georgia got a good win over South Carolina.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Alabama at Florida (Tue)
MOUNTAIN WEST: San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State.
Colorado State was blown out at Air Force, making their bubble a bit more slippery. UNLV got a win over Wyoming, which pushes them a bit closer to a lock.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Utah at Colorado State (Wed)
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Duquesne, Dayton.
Dayton gets back on the bubble with a big win over Duquesne. Richmond stays on the good side of the bubble with a win at Charlotte. Duquesne's loss at St Louis pops their bubble. Rhode Island is hanging onto the bubble by a thread.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: St Louis at Dayton (Wed)
COLONIAL: George Mason, Old Dominion, VCU, Hofstra
C-USA: So. Miss, UAB, UTEP, Memphis, So. Miss
MVC: Missouri State, Wichita State, Northern Iowa.
WAC: Utah State
WCC: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Utah State is close to a lock. So is Missouri State, who beat fellow bubbler Wichita State in a hard fought game. UTEP just spanked Memphis, putting the Tigers back on their heels. UTEP is right there for a bid. Southern Miss lost at UCF, which could end their hopes. Gonzaga is starting to roll. First they beat St. Mary's and their place and then embarrased San Diego.
BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Missouri Valley Tournament (Next week)
ONE BID LEAGUES (18): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit and Sun Belt. As for the WAC, someone other than Utah State needs to win for the conference to get multiple bids.
There are still some landmines out there, of course. But as of now, here is how I see the bids going.
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