Sportz Assassin's Bubble Watch [2/16]

Okay. I've been doing my whole Sportz' Bubble Watch for a few years now and I think it is time to start back up. With only a few weeks left in the season before conference tournaments, let's see how the bubble looks.

So, here are my locks ... yes, by conference. The ones in green are spot on, no doubt locks. The ones in blue are pretty much in, too, though they can't afford to go in a tailspin. The ones in orange are smack dab on the bubble but would be in if the selections were being made today. Every team in red are on the wrong side of the bubble right now and would miss the dance.

I figure there are 21 conferences who are one-bid leagues and 11 conferences that could net multiple bids. So who should be going?

ATLANTIC COAST: Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, NC State, Maryland, Wake Forest.
Usually in my first Bubble Watch of the season, I tend to put a lot of teams in the "out" category just because you really don't know who gets hot and could slide right onto the radar.  Teams like Wake Forest and Maryland aren't really close to the bracket right now, but a few nice wins (say if Maryland held on against Duke on Saturday) can put a team back on the watch.  So to split hairs, that's we shoot for a bigger pool.  However, I see the ACC as a 6-bid league.  Syracuse and Duke are in with Virginia looking very good.  Pitt has a few tough losses this past week which makes them a tad shakier.  UNC is on a roll.  After that, the game is on.

BIG BUBBLE GAMES LOOMING: North Carolina at Florida State, NC State at Clemson, Duke at North Carolina, Florida State at Pittsburgh. 
BIG EAST: Villanova, Creighton, Xavier, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, St John's.
Nova and Creighton have their spots sewn up.  After that, it is a free-for-all.  Who knows?  One thing is for certain, while the new Big East will not get the same representation in the Dance that the old Big East did, they still have a lot of bubble-licious teams.

BIG BUBBLE GAMES LOOMING: Villanova at Providence, Xavier at Georgetown

BIG TEN: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, Nebraska.
The Big Ten knows Michigan State will be and and should feel good about three or four other teams.  Minnesota is the definition of a bubble team.  Purdue, Indiana and Nebraska will need big runs to get themselves in.

BIG BUBBLE GAMES LOOMING: Iowa at Indiana, Michigan State at Purdue, Wisconsin at Iowa, Minnesota at Ohio State

BIG 12: Kansas, Iowa State, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Baylor.
The Big 12 looks like it will be the league that puts the most bids into the NCAA tournament.  What an interesting mix it is.  Kansas and Iowa State will be high seeds, Texas and Oklahoma are surging up while Oklahoma State's issues have been well documented.  West Virginia and Baylor look like they'll be fighting to slip into the tournament, though Baylor's woeful Big XII record will most likely haunt them.

BIG BUBBLE GAMES LOOMING: Oklahoma State at Baylor, Baylor at West Virginia, Kansas State at Oklahoma

PAC-12: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, Arizona State, Stanford, California, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Oregon State.
Remember a couple years ago when the Pac-12 barely could get two teams into the tournament?  Well, times have changed.  The Pac-12 has a lot of teams that could play in March, though only a couple that may play deep into it.  Arizona is a top-tier seed with UCLA possibly reaching pod status.  The rest are on the bubble.

BIG BUBBLE GAMES LOOMING: Washington at Oregon, UCLA at Cal, Arizona State at Colorado, UCLA at Stanford, Arizona State at Utah

SEC: Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Georgia, Ole Miss, LSU, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Texas A&M.
Florida is a lock with Kentucky gaining a lock because, really, how will they falter in this league?  There are 8 teams trying to find a way into the Dance with only Tennessee and Missouri realistically on the bubble.  The SEC in basketball isn't anywhere near the SEC in football.

BIG BUBBLE GAMES LOOMING: Missouri at Georgia, Texas A&M at LSU, Arkansas at Kentucky, Vanderbilt at Tennessee, Georgia at Arkansas, Ole Miss at Texas A&M

AMERICAN ATHLETIC:  Cincinnati, UConn, Memphis, Louisville, SMU.

The AAC is pretty simple this year, unlike when many of these schools were in the Big East or Conference USA.  There are five teams in a good spot for a bid and no one else is close.  SMU should be in the blue, but I have them on the orange ranking just because they would be the one school that would be in trouble with a swoon.

BIG BUBBLE GAMES LOOMING:  Louisville at Memphis, 

MOUNTAIN WEST: San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming, Boise State, Utah State.
In recent years, the Mountain West has been a Bubble Watch favorite.  Four or so teams in the mix but always winning big games to lock up bids.  This year is a bit boring.  SD State is locked in no matter what with New Mexico the lone other to really be looking like a bid team.  The guys in red will really need to make a run to get themselves into a good look at the tournament.

BIG BUBBLE GAMES LOOMING: Utah State at New Mexico, Boise State at Wyoming

A-10: Saint Louis, VCU, UMass, George Washington, Richmond, St. Joseph's, Dayton, St Bonaventure.
Saint Louis leads a crop of A-10 squads that could do some damage in the tournament.  VCU has always been dangerous and UMass seems to be back.  This is a league that could surprise and sneak five or six teams in if the big boys can't take care of business.  This season, I wouldn't put it past anyone.

BIG BUBBLE GAMES LOOMING: Dayton at St Joseph's, UMass at Dayton, Saint Louis at VCU, St Joseph's at St. Bonnie

MVC: Wichita State, Indiana State.
WCC: Gonzaga, BYU
Wichita State is not only a lock, but fighting for a #1 seed and an undefeated season.  Barring anyone else winning the "Arch Madness", no one else from the MVC is getting in.  Over in the West Coast Conference, Gonzaga looks, again, like a tourney team while BYU is squarely on the bubble.  To be honest, every other mid-major is a one bid league.

BIG BUBBLE GAMES LOOMING: Indiana State at Illinois State, BYU at San DiegoONE BID LEAGUES (21): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt and WAC.

SPORTZ ASSASSIN'S BUBBLE WATCH

Today is the first day of my annual SPORTZ ASSASSIN BUBBLE WATCH. So check in daily to see how my latest bubble picks are shaping up.

Bubble Watch - February 28, 2010

Okay. I've been doing my whole Sportz' Bubble Watch for a few years now and I think it is time to start back up. With only a few weeks left in the season before conference tournaments, let's see how the bubble looks.

So, here are my locks ... yes, by conference. The ones in green are spot on, no doubt locks. The ones in blue are pretty much in, too, though they can't afford to go in a tailspin. The ones in orange are smack dab on the bubble but would be in if the selections were being made today. Every team in red are on the wrong side of the bubble right now and would miss the dance.

I figure there are 18 conferences who are one-bid leagues and 13 conferences that could net multiple bids. So who should be going?

ATLANTIC COAST: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Maryland.
Virginia Tech got a major lift to their tournament hopes by beating No. 1 Duke. While they aren't locks, they are on the right track. FSU got their 10th ACC win which put them in the "looking good" category. BC got a blowout win at Virginia. Clemson stays in the bubble hunt with a solid win over Wake Forest.

BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Boston College at Virginia Tech (Tue)

BIG EAST: Notre Dame, Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, Syracuse, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette.
Not much new year right now. I did move St. John's to a lock after their win at Villanova. West Virginia got a good win at Rutgers to solidify their resume. Marquette's win over Providence puts them, at worst, win a .500 conference record which will probably get them in.

BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Providence at Marquette (Sun), Cincinnati at Marquette (Wed)

BIG TEN: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan.
Yikes! Michigan State took a dubious step back by getting spanked by 20 by Purdue. They're still in for me, but they're wobbling. I think Minnesota is done. They lost to Michigan at home and have lost 7 of their last 8 games.

BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Purdue at Michigan State (Sun); Illinois at Purdue (Tue)

BIG XII: Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor.
Yes, Colorado beat Texas, but they're not getting back on the bubble. Baylor got a must win at home over Texas A&M. They're still out, as they need to win out and go a round or two in the Big XII tourny to win a bid. I moved K State to a "looking good" after their huge win over Mizzou. Oklahoma St got a must win over Texas Tech. Nebraska's OT loss to Iowa State pops their bubble ... again.

BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Baylor at Oklahoma State (Tue)

PAC-10: Arizona, Washington, UCLA, Washington State.
UCLA humiliated Arizona, which makes their NCAA case that much stronger. Washington State got a huge win at Washington to keep their hopes alive. .

BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: UCLA at Washington (Thu)

SEC: Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama.
Alabama followed up their squeaker over woeful Auburn with a loss at Ole Miss. This really hurts the Tide's at large hopes. Tennessee keeps making it tough to put them in the tournament as they lost at home to Mississippi State, making them 17-12 and just an 7-7 record in SEC play. Georgia got a good win over South Carolina.

BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Alabama at Florida (Tue)

MOUNTAIN WEST: San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State.
Colorado State was blown out at Air Force, making their bubble a bit more slippery. UNLV got a win over Wyoming, which pushes them a bit closer to a lock.

BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Utah at Colorado State (Wed)

A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Duquesne, Dayton.
Dayton gets back on the bubble with a big win over Duquesne. Richmond stays on the good side of the bubble with a win at Charlotte. Duquesne's loss at St Louis pops their bubble. Rhode Island is hanging onto the bubble by a thread.

BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: St Louis at Dayton (Wed)

COLONIAL: George Mason, Old Dominion, VCU, Hofstra
C-USA: So. Miss, UAB, UTEP, Memphis, So. Miss
MVC: Missouri State, Wichita State, Northern Iowa.
WAC: Utah State
WCC: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Utah State is close to a lock. So is Missouri State, who beat fellow bubbler Wichita State in a hard fought game. UTEP just spanked Memphis, putting the Tigers back on their heels. UTEP is right there for a bid. Southern Miss lost at UCF, which could end their hopes. Gonzaga is starting to roll. First they beat St. Mary's and their place and then embarrased San Diego.

BIG BUBBLE GAME LOOMING: Missouri Valley Tournament (Next week)

ONE BID LEAGUES (18): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit and Sun Belt. As for the WAC, someone other than Utah State needs to win for the conference to get multiple bids.

There are still some landmines out there, of course. But as of now, here is how I see the bids going.